Can we identify areas where nature will need to migrate in response to climate change?
Borrowing principles of resistance and flow from electrical engineering, The Nature Conservancy in California mapped ecological connectivity throughout the state.
The climate is changing faster than at any time in recorded history. Catastrophic storms, droughts, floods, and fires are increasingly common. People adjust to these changes by turning up the air conditioning, fighting forest fires, and building infrastructure.
Plants and animals are also feeling the heat, but lack the ability to change their environment. When their territories become uninhabitable, their only option is to leave and search out new habitats. Range shifts have already been detected for many plant and animal populations in response to recent climate change. But adaptation takes time—often many generations—and the climate is changing ten times faster than it has in the past. Even as they struggle to adapt, wildlife attempting to move to new ranges are likely to run into roads, dams, cities and sprawl blocking the way.
Given all these challenges, how do we protect California’s iconic ecosystems—oak woodlands, giant redwood forests, desert chaparral—as well as the plants and animals adapted to live in those systems? With limited resources for protecting additional lands, the conservation community needs to ensure that our priorities and investments optimize for conservation today and under future conditions.
Large, undeveloped tracts of land with varied topographies and microclimates may offer the most benefit to plants and animals under climate stress. Over time, these lands provide conditions that allow plants and wildlife to adapt to changing climate. But, identifying these resilient places—and the linkages that can connect them today and in the future—is complicated.
Scientists with the Nature Conservancy in California and in the North American science team, and Conservation Science Partners have been working on mathematical models, or tools, to help map connectivity potential across the state. These tools are helping decision-makers prioritize land protection and infrastructure development efforts.
Carrie Schloss, Dick Cameron, Nathaniel Rindlaub, Connor Shank
This interactive, web-based tour provides an accessible introduction to The Nature Conservancy’s analysis of wildlife movement routes for climate adaptation in California. Viewing these pathways in three-dimensional landscapes highlights the importance of elevation gradients, stream and river valleys, and topographic relief for species moving in…
Brett G. Dickson, Christine M. Albano, Ranjan Anantharaman, Paul Beier, Joe Fargione, Tabitha A. Graves, Miranda E. Gray, Kimberly R. Hall, Josh J. Lawler, Paul B. Leonard, Caitlin E. Littlefield, Meredith L. McClure, John Novembre, Carrie A. Schloss, Nathan H. Schumaker, Viral B. Shah, David M. Theobald
The authors explore the impact that Brad McRae’s development of circuit theory and the associated software, Circuitscape, have had, and continue to have, on connectivity science and conservation. The circuit-theory approach to connectivity modeling offers an alternative to least-cost paths by quantifying movement potential across…
Alex Leumer, Carrie Schloss, Cara Lacey
Plants and animals lack the ability to change their environment. As their current habitat becomes unsuitable due to climate change, they may search out new, more suitable habitat to adapt to changing conditions. With limited resources for protecting additional lands, the conservation community must protect…
H.B. Ernest, T.W. Vickers, S.A. Morrison, M.R. Buchalski, W.M. Boyce
Highly fragmented landscapes can pose myriad threats to wide-ranging species like mountain lions. Coastal southern California has long been the focus of research into demographics, genetics, and movement patterns of lions, in large part to inform conservation planning. This paper presents genetic data, which combine…
B. C. Mclaughlin, C. N. Morozumi, J. MacKenzie, A. Cole, S. Gennet
Anticipating how species will move as the climate changes is a fundamental concern in 21st century conservation. This study modeled potential responses of blue oak (Quercus douglasii), an endemic, flagship species in California, to future climate and then validated the results in the field. This suggests…
This webmap provides regional climate projections with information about topography, coastal proximity and level of habitat fragmentation to help land managers identify concrete conservation actions they can take now to help address the threat of climate change to the terrestrial species of California.
Klausmeyer, K, D. Cameron, S. Morrison
This study evaluated the existing network of conservation lands in California to determine the extent to which it includes landscape features that may be especially important for biodiversity conservation in the context of climate change. The authors found that past conservation action has created an…
Shaw, M.R., L. Pendleton, D.R. Cameron, B. Morris, D. Bachelet, K. Klausmeyer, J. MacKenzie, D.R. Conklin, G.N. Bratman, J. Lenihan, E. Haunreiter, C. Daly, P.R. Roehrdanz
As the climate warms, changes in ecosystems will impact human communities and livelihoods. This paper, together with a California Energy Commission Scenarios Report of the same name, explores the broad impacts of climate change on ecosystem services and California’s economy. These publications help direct land…
Klausmeyer, K. R., M. R. Shaw, J.B. MacKenzie, D.R.Cameron
This analysis provides an approach for distilling complex climate and landscape data into actions land managers can take to help plants and animals adapt to a changing climate. Based on historical data, climate projections and landscape attributes like topography, coastal proximity and habitat fragmentation that…
Kirk Klausmeyer, Dan Olstein, Terri Schulz, Robin Cox, Sasha Gennet, Jason MacKenzie
While the literature and guidance on traditional conservation planning methods is extensive, there are few case studies on methods for incorporating climate change into conservation planning efforts. This report outlines the methods the Conservancy used to develop strategies to help species adapt in the Mount…
Scott Morrison, Walter Boyce
Critical for biodiversity conservation is the retention of ecological connectivity in the landscape, so that wildlife—and the natural processes that sustain wildlife—can move around. Ideally, that cohesion would be protected by conserving landscape-scale linkages—large swaths of relatively intact habitat joining core reserve lands. Where linkages…
Scott A. Morrison, Mark D. Reynolds
Protecting, restoring, and enhancing habitat connectivity in already fragmented landscapes poses many challenges for conservationists. This essay discusses the importance of considering implementation feasibility when developing connectivity conservation priorities and plans. In Connectivity Conservation edited by Kevin R. Crooks and M Sanjayan.